The position timeline and the estimate between 13Fs

Method §2.2. Version 1.1, 2026-10-05.

13F, 13D, 13G and Form 4 steps joined per fund and stock, and an estimate labelled with its source.

Worked examples describe the reference filings used to check this method. Counts are tied to the dated reference data and may differ from current site coverage. Example pages become available as their filings are imported.

The rule

For each filer group (or a filer outside any group) and each security, the timeline lists every step, newest first: the 13F position of each quarter, every 13D and 13G stake, and every Form 3, 4 and 5 line. Each step links to its filing with EDGAR's acceptance time and the time we ingested it. A step never overwrites another, and the 13F stays as filed.

• 13F steps sum the group's members for the quarter, shares only. A member is left out when another member's report lists it as an included manager, it filed a plain holdings report, and it holds no more than that member, since its shares are already in that report.
• 13D and 13G steps show the aggregate the reporting persons state, read under the issuer's common shares. That aggregate can include entities that file no 13F.
• Form 3, 4 and 5 steps use only the rows that describe the common shares: no derivative row, no row superseded by an amendment, no title naming a preferred, warrant, option, unit, note or right, and no title of another share class. Each holding row is an ownership line. A transaction row continues the line whose amount equals the row's amount after the trade less the trade itself, so lines chain by amount, else it opens a new line. A step shows the row's own trade and the sum of the lines after it.
• The change of a step is shown only against the previous step of the same kind with the same members. Where the basis changes (13F to 13G, another filing's lines, or a member joining or leaving), the step says so instead of showing a change.

The estimated current stake is the newest step that states shares. It is shown only when that step is a 13D, 13G or Form 3, 4 or 5 dated after the latest 13F period, and it is always labelled with its source and filing date, for example "estimated from 13G of 2026-10-01". It is never a bare number. A Form 4 states no percent of class. When a Form 4 estimate states the same shares as the latest 13D or 13G, it takes that filing's percent, and the page names the 13D or 13G it came from. % of portfolio is always computed on the 13F as filed, never on the estimate.

How often

13D and 13G filings carry structured share counts from 2024-12-18. Before that date we show the filing as a step with no share count. In the data loaded on 2026-10-05, 76 (group or filer, security) pairs have a 13D or 13G with shares dated after the Q2 2026 period end, 25 of them on a position the group's Q2 2026 13F holds, and Form 3, 4 or 5 rows after that date cover 729 pairs. Those are the pairs an estimate can apply to. Over 100 random (group, security) pairs of Q2 2026 a timeline takes 3.7 ms at the median and 4.9 ms at the 95th percentile to build.

Worked example

Pale Fire Capital held 5,524,591 Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD) shares at 2026-03-31 and 5,773,932 at 2026-06-30 per its 13F-HR filed 2026-08-13 (0000921895-26-002114, accepted 2026-08-13 20:15:26 UTC), a change of +249,341 and 4.31% of its portfolio. On 2026-10-01 at 20:03:43 UTC EDGAR accepted its Schedule 13G (0000921895-26-002694) reporting 6,654,851 shares, 5.1% of the class, as of 2026-09-24. The 13G is a group aggregate on another basis, so the step shows no change against the 13F. The timeline labels 6,654,851 "estimated from 13G of 2026-10-01". See the LSPD timeline.

On Coursera (COUR) the newest step is a Form 4 (0000921895-26-002677) whose lines end at 28,806,415 shares, the same as the 13G/A of 2026-09-29, so the estimate reads 28,806,415 shares and takes the 13G/A's 10.9%.